Tier 4

obo - Obvious Bad Outcomes

Obvious Bad Outcomes

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Purpose

The most dangerous risks aren’t the subtle ones — they’re the obvious ones that everyone sees but nobody says out loud. Optimism bias, groupthink, and sunk costs cause people to rationalize away clear dangers. This skill forces the uncomfortable obvious onto the table.

Step 1: STATE THE SITUATION

What is being analyzed?

SUBJECT: [one sentence]

Step 2: OBVIOUS BAD OUTCOME SCAN

For each category, identify what bad thing is obviously true or obviously likely:

A. The Elephant in the Room

  1. What is the most obvious way this fails?
  2. What bad outcome is everyone aware of but not discussing?
  3. What risk is being minimized with phrases like “it probably won’t happen” or “we’ll deal with it later”?

B. Direct Negative Consequences

  1. Who obviously gets hurt by this? How?
  2. What is the most likely negative outcome?
  3. What cost is being underestimated?

C. Predictable Failures

  1. When similar things have been tried before, how did they fail?
  2. What pattern of failure is this following?
  3. What is the base rate of failure for this type of thing?

D. Downstream Negatives

  1. What bad thing does this make more likely in the future?
  2. What options does this close off?
  3. What precedent does this set?

E. Who Loses

  1. Who bears the cost if this goes wrong?
  2. Is the person making the decision the same person who bears the risk?
  3. What happens to the most vulnerable stakeholder in the failure case?

Step 3: THE UNCOMFORTABLE QUESTION

Ask directly:

If this goes wrong in the most obvious way, and someone asks “didn’t anyone see this coming?” — what would the answer be?

If the answer is “yes, everyone saw it coming” — that’s the finding.

Step 4: OUTPUT

OBVIOUS BAD OUTCOMES:

Elephant in the room:
- [the thing everyone knows but isn't saying]

Most likely failure:
- [the obvious way this goes wrong]

Predictable pattern:
- [how this type of thing usually fails]

Who gets hurt:
- [who bears the downside]

Most dangerous overlooked risk: [the one being actively rationalized away]

What honest acknowledgment changes: [how the analysis shifts when you stop ignoring this]

Integration

Use with:

  • /ogo -> Balance with obvious good outcomes
  • /saf -> Full safety analysis
  • /obv -> General obvious check
  • /oba -> Obvious everything scan
  • /prm -> Pre-mortem for detailed failure analysis