Inversion Method (How to Fail)
Overview
Charlie Munger’s favorite technique: “Invert, always invert.” It’s often easier to identify failure modes than success factors. Finding ways to fail → Avoiding them → More likely to succeed.
Also known as: “Kill the company” exercise, Pre-mortem, Via negativa
Goal
Find how to succeed by first asking “How would I guarantee failure?” Then do the opposite. Inversion often reveals non-obvious insights.
Depth Scaling
Default: 2x. Parse depth from $ARGUMENTS if specified (e.g., “/im 4x [input]”).
| Depth | Min Failure Scenarios | Min Inversion Layers | Min Mitigation Plans | Min Stress Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2x | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 4x | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 8x | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 16x | 18 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
These are floors. Go deeper where insight is dense. Compress where it’s not.
Steps
Step 1: State the Goal
Clearly state what you’re trying to achieve. Be specific about what success looks like.
Output: Goal statement
Step 2: Invert the Goal
Ask: “How would I GUARANTEE failure?” Not “might fail” but “definitely fail.”
Reframe: “If I wanted to [opposite of goal], what would I do?”
Output: Inverted goal
Step 3: Brainstorm Failure Modes
List all the ways to guarantee failure. Be thorough and honest. Include:
- Obvious failures
- Subtle failures
- Failures of omission (not doing things)
- Failures of commission (doing wrong things)
- Psychological failures (mindset, motivation)
- Environmental failures (wrong context, timing)
Output: Exhaustive failure list
Step 4: Invert Each Failure Mode
For each failure mode, state its opposite. This becomes a success factor.
Output: Success factors
Step 5: Prioritize Success Factors
Not all success factors are equal. Prioritize by:
- Impact (how much does this matter?)
- Controllability (can I actually do this?)
- Likelihood (how likely is the failure mode?)
Output: Prioritized success factors
Step 6: Create Action Plan
Convert success factors to specific actions. Include both:
- Things TO DO
- Things to AVOID
Output: Action plan
When to Use
- Planning a project/venture
- Evaluating a strategy
- Improving a process
- Personal goals
- When “how to succeed” is unclear
Verification
- Goal was clearly stated
- Failure modes are genuine (would actually cause failure)
- Inversions are true opposites
- Actions are specific and actionable
- Both do’s and don’ts are included