Future Analysis

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Step 1: DEFINE THE SCOPE

What future are we exploring?

SUBJECT: [what we're projecting forward]
CURRENT STATE: [where things are now]
KEY DRIVERS: [what forces are shaping this]

Step 2: TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS

Analyze across four timeframes:

Near-term (1-2 years)

1. What is already in motion that will arrive?
2. What trends are accelerating?
3. What is the default trajectory if nothing changes?
4. What scheduled events or deadlines matter?

Medium-term (3-7 years)

1. What emerging trends reach maturity?
2. What second-order effects of current changes appear?
3. What new capabilities become available?
4. What current assumptions break?

Long-term (8-20 years)

1. What paradigm shifts are plausible?
2. What seems impossible now but follows from current trajectories?
3. What generational changes take effect?
4. What infrastructure is built or decays?

Far-term (20+ years)

1. What does the transformed landscape look like?
2. What is the range of possible worlds?
3. What would people in this future find surprising about today?

Step 3: SCENARIO GENERATION

Generate three distinct futures:

Scenario A: Continuation

What happens if current trends continue without disruption?

Scenario B: Acceleration

What happens if the key driver intensifies dramatically?

Scenario C: Disruption

What happens if an unexpected force changes the trajectory?

For each scenario:

• What changes?
• Who wins? Who loses?
• What opportunities emerge?
• What threats emerge?
• What becomes obsolete?

Step 4: ROBUSTNESS CHECK

1. What is true in ALL three scenarios? (High-confidence predictions)
2. What varies between scenarios? (Key uncertainties)
3. What signals would tell you which scenario is unfolding? (Early indicators)
4. What actions are good in all scenarios? (Robust strategies)

Step 5: IMPLICATIONS

FUTURE ANALYSIS:

Subject: [what was analyzed]

High-confidence predictions (true in all scenarios):
- [prediction 1]
- [prediction 2]

Key uncertainties:
- [uncertainty 1] — watch for: [signal]
- [uncertainty 2] — watch for: [signal]

Opportunities:
- [opportunity that exists in most scenarios]

Threats:
- [threat that exists in most scenarios]

Robust actions (good regardless of which future unfolds):
1. [action]
2. [action]

The future most people aren't expecting: [the scenario or element that would most surprise the current consensus]

Integration

Use with:

• /utp -> Explore the best-case future in depth
• /dys -> Explore the worst-case future in depth
• /snp -> Scenario planning for uncertainty
• /fss -> Future state search
• /prm -> Pre-mortem on future plans