Tier 4

dys - Dystopia Analysis

Dystopia Analysis

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Step 1: DEFINE THE DOMAIN

What domain are we imagining the worst case for?

DOMAIN: [what area of life, society, technology, etc.]
SCOPE: [individual / organizational / societal / global]

Step 2: CONSTRUCT THE WORST CASE

Follow current negative trends to their logical extreme:

A. What does it look like?

  1. What is the daily experience of people in this failed state?
  2. What problems have gotten worse?
  3. What capabilities have been lost?
  4. What relationships and structures have broken down?
  5. What do people spend their time on? (Survival, coping, conflict?)

B. What went wrong?

  1. What single failure was the tipping point?
  2. What cascade of failures followed?
  3. What warnings were ignored?
  4. What safeguards failed?
  5. What was the “we should have seen this coming” moment?

C. How did we get here?

Trace the path from now to the dystopia:

  1. What was the first step on this path?
  2. What was the point of no return?
  3. What seemed reasonable at each step but was catastrophic in aggregate?
  4. What feedback loops accelerated the decline?

Step 3: EARLY WARNING SIGNALS

For the dystopian path identified:

  1. What signals would appear FIRST? (Things we should be watching for now)
  2. What signals mean we’re past the point of easy correction?
  3. What signals mean it’s too late?
EARLY WARNINGS:
Stage 1 (still easy to fix): [signal]
Stage 2 (harder to fix): [signal]
Stage 3 (very difficult): [signal]
Stage 4 (too late): [signal]

Step 4: WHO SUFFERS

  1. Who is harmed first? (Canary in the coal mine)
  2. Who is harmed most?
  3. Who doesn’t realize they’re being harmed until it’s too late?
  4. Who benefits from the dystopia? (There are always beneficiaries)
  5. Who has the power to prevent it but doesn’t?

Step 5: PREVENTION

The value of dystopia analysis is prevention.

  1. Interventions — What would prevent the worst case at each stage?
  2. Monitoring — What should we be measuring to detect the early warnings?
  3. Safeguards — What structural protections should exist?
  4. Red lines — What should trigger immediate action?
  5. Resilience — If prevention fails, what makes the bad outcome survivable?

Step 6: OUTPUT

DYSTOPIA ANALYSIS:

Domain: [area]

The worst case:
[2-3 sentence description of the dystopia]

Path to dystopia:
1. [first step — seems reasonable]
2. [second step — warning signs appear]
3. [third step — point of no return]
4. [arrival — full dystopia]

Early warnings to watch:
- [signal 1] — current status: [present/absent]
- [signal 2] — current status: [present/absent]

Who suffers first: [canary group]
Who benefits: [who gains from the bad outcome]

Prevention priorities:
1. [most important intervention]
2. [second most important]

Red line: [if THIS happens, act immediately]

Most useful insight: [what this analysis changes about current decisions]

Integration

Use with:

  • /utp -> Contrast with best-case analysis
  • /fut -> Ground in realistic timeframes
  • /saf -> Full safety analysis on current state
  • /obo -> Check for obvious bad outcomes already present
  • /prm -> Pre-mortem on specific plans