Tier 4

asucc - Assume Success

Assume Success

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Core Move

Assume it works. The plan succeeds, the project ships, the relationship heals, the bet pays off. Then look at what the world ACTUALLY looks like after success. Is it what you wanted?

The most underused thinking move. People plan for failure but rarely examine success deeply enough.

Procedure

Step 1: State the Endeavor

What are we assuming succeeds?

Step 2: Force the Assumption

“This succeeds completely. Everything goes as planned or better.”

Step 3: Trace Implications

If it succeeds:

  1. What does the world look like? — Describe the post-success state in detail.
  2. Is that actually what we want? — Sometimes success reveals you wanted the wrong thing.
  3. What new problems emerge? — Success always creates new problems. What are they?
  4. What’s the maintenance cost? — Success often needs to be maintained. What does that take?
  5. Who else is affected? — Ripple effects of success on others, systems, relationships.
  6. What’s the next goal? — If this succeeds, what becomes the next thing to pursue?
  7. Does success make us fragile? — Does success create new dependencies or single points of failure?

Step 4: Test the Assumption

  • How realistic is full success? What’s the most likely partial success?
  • What would need to go right for success?
  • Is the definition of “success” clear and agreed upon?
  • Could we succeed in letter but fail in spirit?

Step 5: Synthesize

ENDEAVOR: [stated]
ASSUMING SUCCESS:
  Post-success world: [description]
  Actually desirable?: [yes/partially/no — with specifics]
  New problems: [what success creates]
  Maintenance cost: [ongoing requirements]
  Next goal: [what comes after]
SUCCESS PROBABILITY: [rough estimate]
INSIGHT: [what examining success revealed]

When to Use

  • Planning an initiative and want to see past the goal
  • Need to test whether the goal is actually desirable
  • Want to anticipate post-success problems before they arrive

Integration

  • Pair with /afail for the opposite stance
  • Follow with /fut for future scenario analysis
  • Use with /gop for outcome analysis