Tier 4

asimp - Assume Simple

Assume Simple

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Core Move

Assume the simplest explanation is correct. No hidden complexity, no lurking variables, no elaborate mechanisms. The obvious, straightforward account is right. Occam’s razor, applied with force.

Useful when complexity is accumulating and you need to test whether the simple story works.

Procedure

Step 1: State the Situation

What are we analyzing?

Step 2: State the Simplest Explanation

What’s the most straightforward, parsimonious account? No moving parts you don’t need.

Step 3: Force the Assumption

“The simple explanation is correct. The complexity is unnecessary.”

Step 4: Trace Implications

If it really is simple:

  1. What complexity can we discard? — What elaborate theories, mechanisms, or factors can we drop?
  2. What does the simple explanation predict? — Simple theories make clean predictions. What are they?
  3. What does it explain well? — Where does simplicity shine?
  4. What does it explain poorly? — Where does it strain? (These are the real tests.)
  5. Why did we think it was complex? — What made us add complexity? Was it justified or reflexive?
  6. What action follows? — Simple problems usually have simple solutions. What’s the simple fix?

Step 5: Test the Assumption

  • Does the simple explanation account for ALL the evidence?
  • Are there observations that REQUIRE complexity?
  • Is the simplicity genuine, or are we sweeping inconvenient facts under the rug?
  • Sometimes things really are complex. Is this one of those times?

Step 6: Synthesize

SITUATION: [stated]
SIMPLE EXPLANATION: [stated]
ASSUMING SIMPLE:
  Discard: [unnecessary complexity]
  Predicts: [clean predictions]
  Strains at: [where it doesn't quite fit]
  Simple fix: [action that follows]
SIMPLICITY WARRANTED?: [yes/partially/no]
IF NOT: [what complexity is actually required]

When to Use

  • Overthinking something and need a reset
  • Testing whether complexity is earned or reflexive
  • Want a baseline simple model before adding complexity

Integration

  • Pair with /acplx for the opposite stance
  • Follow with /smpl to simplify your communication about it
  • Use Occam’s razor as default, add complexity only where /asimp fails