Assume Problem

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Core Move

Take something — a factor, condition, person, system, belief — and assume it is THE problem. Not a contributing factor. THE root cause. Then trace what follows.

Useful for testing candidate root causes without getting lost in “well, it’s complicated.”

Procedure

Step 1: State the Candidate Problem

What are we assuming is the problem?

Step 2: Force the Assumption

“[X] is the root cause. Everything else is a symptom or downstream effect.”

Step 3: Trace Implications

If this is the problem:

What symptoms does it explain? — List every observed issue that would flow from this root cause.
What symptoms does it NOT explain? — What’s left unexplained? (These challenge the assumption.)
What does fixing it look like? — Concrete actions to address this specific root cause.
What’s the predicted result of fixing it? — If we fix this and it IS the problem, what specifically improves?
How did it become the problem? — What’s the causal history?
Why hasn’t it been fixed already? — What’s prevented the fix? Incentives? Visibility? Difficulty?

Step 4: Test the Assumption

Does this explain MORE symptoms than alternative root causes?
Would fixing this actually resolve the situation, or would new problems emerge?
Is there a way to test this hypothesis before committing to a fix?
Could this be a symptom mistaken for a cause?

Step 5: Synthesize

CANDIDATE PROBLEM: [X]
ASSUMING IT'S THE ROOT CAUSE:
  Explains: [symptoms accounted for]
  Doesn't explain: [gaps]
  Fix: [concrete actions]
  Predicted result: [what improves]
ROOT CAUSE CONFIDENCE: [high/medium/low]
TEST: [how to verify before committing]

When to Use

Have multiple candidate root causes and need to test each
Stuck in analysis paralysis about what the “real” problem is
Want to trace implications of a specific diagnosis

Integration

Run multiple times with different candidates, then compare
Pair with /rca for systematic root cause analysis
Follow with /asol to test candidate solutions

aprob - Assume Problem