Assume Failure

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Core Move

Assume it fails. Completely. The plan doesn’t work, the project dies, the bet loses. Now: what happens? How bad is it? What do we learn? What do we do next?

Classic pre-mortem thinking. By assuming failure, you find the weak points before they break.

Procedure

Step 1: State the Endeavor

What are we assuming fails?

Step 2: Force the Assumption

“This fails completely. Despite best efforts, it does not work.”

Step 3: Trace Implications

If it fails:

1. What’s the damage? — Financial, reputational, emotional, relational, strategic. Be specific.
2. Is it recoverable? — Can we bounce back? How long? At what cost?
3. What’s the most likely failure mode? — How specifically does it fail? What goes wrong first?
4. What’s the warning sign? — What would we see early that indicates failure is coming?
5. What do we learn? — What does failure teach that success wouldn’t?
6. What’s the backup plan? — If this fails, what do we do instead?
7. Who is affected? — Who bears the cost of failure?

Step 4: Test the Assumption

• What’s the actual probability of complete failure?
• Are there partial failure modes (more likely than complete failure)?
• What would prevent failure? Are those preventions in place?
• Has similar work failed before? Why?

Step 5: Synthesize

ENDEAVOR: [stated]
ASSUMING FAILURE:
  Damage: [specific consequences]
  Recoverable?: [yes/partially/no — timeline]
  Likely failure mode: [how it fails]
  Warning sign: [early indicator]
  Backup plan: [alternative]
  Lesson: [what failure teaches]
FAILURE PROBABILITY: [rough estimate]
PREVENTIVE ACTION: [what to do now to reduce failure risk]

When to Use

• Pre-mortem on a plan before committing
• Need to build contingency plans
• Want to identify the weakest links in a strategy

Integration

• Pair with /asucc for the opposite stance
• Follow with /rmm for error recovery planning
• Use with /rskl for risk assessment