Tier 4

acplx - Assume Complex

Assume Complex

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Core Move

Assume it’s more complex than it looks. The simple story is incomplete. There are hidden variables, non-obvious interactions, feedback loops, or emergent properties we’re not seeing.

Useful when something seems “too simple” or when simple interventions keep failing.

Procedure

Step 1: State the Situation

What are we analyzing?

Step 2: State the Current (Simple) Understanding

What’s the prevailing explanation or model?

Step 3: Force the Assumption

“This is more complex than it appears. The current understanding is incomplete.”

Step 4: Trace Implications

If it’s truly complex:

  1. What’s hidden? — What variables, actors, or forces aren’t in the current model?
  2. What interactions exist? — What’s affecting what? Feedback loops? Non-linear effects?
  3. What emerges? — What system-level behaviors arise that can’t be predicted from parts?
  4. Why does simplicity fail? — What specific observations does the simple model get wrong?
  5. What’s the minimum additional complexity needed? — Don’t add everything. What’s the least we must add?
  6. What does the complex model predict differently? — Where do simple and complex models diverge?

Step 5: Test the Assumption

  • Is there actual evidence of hidden complexity, or just anxiety?
  • Have simple interventions been tried and failed? (That’s evidence for complexity.)
  • Is the complexity irreducible, or can it be managed/abstracted?
  • Are we adding complexity because it feels sophisticated?

Step 6: Synthesize

SITUATION: [stated]
CURRENT MODEL: [simple version]
ASSUMING COMPLEX:
  Hidden factors: [what's missing]
  Key interactions: [feedback loops, non-linearities]
  Minimum addition: [least complexity needed]
  Different predictions: [where models diverge]
COMPLEXITY WARRANTED?: [yes/partially/no]
IF YES: [revised model]
IF NO: [stick with simple, but monitor for...]

When to Use

  • Simple solutions keep failing
  • Suspect hidden dynamics
  • Need to upgrade a model that’s too simplistic

Integration

  • Pair with /asimp for the opposite stance
  • Follow with /systhink for systems-level analysis
  • Use /fohw to understand the complex system