Tier 4

aasm - Assume Assumption

Assume Assumption

Input: $ARGUMENTS

Core Move

Take something that’s being assumed (often implicitly) and make it the explicit, central premise. Then stress-test it: what depends on this assumption? What breaks if it’s wrong? How would we know?

This is meta-level: assuming the assumption itself is correct, and tracing the dependency chain.

Procedure

Step 1: Identify the Assumption

What assumption are we examining? State it explicitly, even if it was originally implicit.

Step 2: Force the Assumption

“[Assumption] is true. We are building on this as solid ground.”

Step 3: Trace the Dependency Chain

If this assumption is correct:

  1. What rests on it? — List everything that depends on this assumption being true. Decisions, plans, beliefs, other assumptions.
  2. How deep does it go? — Trace the dependency chain. A depends on this assumption. B depends on A. C depends on B. How far?
  3. What else must be true? — What OTHER assumptions are required alongside this one?
  4. How would we know it’s wrong? — What observable signal would indicate this assumption has failed?
  5. How old is this assumption? — When was it formed? Is it based on conditions that still hold?
  6. Who else shares this assumption? — Is it widely held, or idiosyncratic?

Step 4: Fragility Assessment

FRAGILITY RATING:

  Load-bearing: [how much depends on it? 1=little, 5=everything]
  Testability:  [can we verify it? 1=untestable, 5=easy to check]
  Age:          [how long held? Recent/old/ancient]
  Alternatives: [if wrong, do alternatives exist? Yes/no/partial]
  Warning signs: [what would early failure look like?]

Step 5: Synthesize

ASSUMPTION: [stated explicitly]
ASSUMING IT'S TRUE:
  Depends on it: [dependency chain]
  Also requires: [companion assumptions]
  Failure signal: [how we'd know it's wrong]
FRAGILITY: [fragile/moderate/robust]
RECOMMENDATION: [keep/test/replace/monitor]

When to Use

  • Auditing the foundations of a plan or belief system
  • Found a hidden assumption and want to understand its weight
  • Building on something and want to know how solid the ground is

Integration

  • Use /aex first to surface assumptions, then /aasm to test the critical ones
  • Follow with /aop to see what happens if the assumption is wrong
  • Pair with /ht to design a test of the assumption